Empires decline in time

Our national debt is approaching 35 trillion dollars. If we were to experience a crisis, the existing large debt would be a serious problem. Given known history, it is probable that the United States will face expensive crises in the future. Even without a major crisis, paying the interest on that debt is going to be a problem. The annual interest payment is currently one trillion dollars. Reducing the national debt without wrecking the lives of millions of people is going to be a supreme challenge.

It is time for the European NATO countries to accept primary responsibility for their defense. Excluding the United States, Canada, and England, the European NATO countries have a combined gross domestic product (GDP) that is five times greater than Russia’s GDP. The European NATO countries have a combined population that is more than four times greater than Russia’s population. These European NATO countries can elect to do business with Russia or view Russia as a potential enemy, but regardless, they need to accept primary responsibility for their own defense, and the United States needs to accept a lesser role.

The United States is engaged in serious competition in the race to dominate space. We are committed to participate in any NATO conflict, and we are involved in Ukraine and the Middle East. Our potential adversaries include Russia, China, and North Korea. Our economic competitors include a growing list of countries.

We need to deal with climate change issues. Although some political denial remains, there is overwhelming evidence that costly adjustments are coming and unavoidable. Property insurance companies are declining to insure homes in an expanding list of geographical areas. Without insurance, mortgages are not available.

Antibacterial medications that prevent infections and cure diseases are losing their effectiveness. We need to develop replacement antibacterial medications. Otherwise, many severe diseases will return, and surgery could become a high risk procedure because of an inability to prevent infection.

We are likely facing job losses to artificial intelligence (AI) and automation. Even without those measures, we are experiencing job losses. Where the author of this article resides, Lowe’s Building Supplies, Home Depot, and Walmart have implemented self check-out procedures. The Walmart store was built with 23 checkout lanes. Now, only one is staffed and is used mainly by customers with large carts of groceries. The employee who works that checkout line must also bag the groceries. This shift to do-it-yourself has three consequences. It increases prices by forcing the customer to perform unpaid labor. It increases profit for the business. Most importantly, it leaves a lot of people unemployed.

Our domestic political scene is showing signs of stress that will require time and good citizenship to resolve.

Since the end of World War Two in 1945, the U.S. invaded or conducted overt military operations in not fewer than 15 countries: Afghanistan, Cambodia, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Iraq, Korea, Lebanon, Libya, Panama, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Vietnam, Yemen, and the derivatives of the former Yugoslavia. None attacked the United States; none had a capability to attack the United States; and, certainly, none had nuclear weapons. Were these military operations necessary? Did they accomplish anything worthwhile? Maybe, but we cannot continue this war-of-choice policy and, also, meet all of our other obligations.

The bane of empires is over-commitment. England and France once had large geographical empires. The British attempted to rule one-fourth of the population of the planet and exercise control of one-fourth of the land mass of our planet including a place now known as the United States. After experiencing the human and financial costs of World War Two, England had to beg the United States to overthrow the democratically elected government of Iran so that England could obtain low cost Iranian oil, and the United State did that, thus making Iran an enemy of the United States. France, diminished by war, lost its domination of Indochina.

The United States has been an empire of influence, but that influence is waning. People in countries that do not have well-developed democratic traditions seem to have greater interest in economic gain than they have in emulating or partnering with America. China’s rapid economic rise is an attraction for many people regardless of the authoritarian nature of the state. We can’t solve all of the world’s problems. We need to concentrate on solving our own problems.