Pigskin Picks: playoffs round 4

A Cinderella story is brewing in the Roseboro-Salemburg area. The Lakewood Leopards’ football team is getting red hot and cruising through the playoffs in historic fashion, taking down everyone in their path — undefeated conference foe or not.

The Leopards pounced their way through the undefeated North Duplin Rebels Friday night, shutting them down on their home field and stunning them in the third round of the playoffs. The Rebels were heavy favorites in many peoples’ eyes, except for a sports editor in Sampson County.

I try not to brag too often, especially when it comes to my professional life, but in this case, the bragging is deserved. My picks article was brief last week, and I didn’t get to expand as well on the game plan that it would take to down the Rebels and their big rushing attack as I wanted to. But, if you tuned into WCLN’s broadcast before the game or at halftime, you might have heard my silky-smooth voice discussing with their team they keys to the game.

I said quite a few things both on that broadcast and in my picks article last week. One of them was that Lakewood’s passing offense could quickly get behind the Rebels’ defense — they had done it in their previous match-up this season, and that would win them the game. Another was to eliminate both their big defensive tackle and their running back — both of them carried that team to their success on the field this season.

And wouldn’t you know it — both of those things came true. A late first half strike down the middle of the field to Xavier Hall gave Lakewood the momentum it needed going into halftime. If the Leopards were going to win the game that night, it was going to be through capitalizing on mismatches and timing. The offensive line held strong throughout the night, giving quarterback Reed Ammons time to set up plays like options and passes and creating holes for running backs Calvin Lacewell, Jr. and Nakai Owens to move through. North Duplin went down to the wire with a pass-heavy offense from Hobbton in the last regular season game, so I knew if the Leopards could set them up on the run, they could get the defensive backs out of position on a long ball.

Defensively, they did what they needed to. If you just looked at the box score of the game and saw that North Duplin’s Carell Phillips ran for over 200 yards and three touchdowns, you’d think they had been beat all night — I’m here to tell you it was the opposite. The Rebels run a Wing-T offense with plenty of misdirections and ‘who has the ball?’ plays. Lakewood wasn’t fooled by this. They did a great job of containing runs inside and not allowing North Duplin to move outside the tackles. The Rebels’ first drive was shutdown at the six inch-line by big, bad Cam Williams on a fumble recovery, and that set the tone for the night. John Holt had his team ready to play, and they were there to show they should have been conference champions.

While the game did come down to the wire, and the referees weren’t favoring Lakewood, especially late, the box score tells a different story than what truly happened. Lakewood had the game from the get-go, there was just a roller coaster ride to get them to the final whistle.

All of that is in the past, though, and the Leopards’ eyes are on this week’s game now. Another battle of the big cats lays before them as they take on the No. 3 seed Wilson Prep Tigers.

No. 10 Lakewood @ No. 3 Wilson Prep, Friday, 7 p.m.

Don’t look now, but Lakewood is outscoring opponents in these playoffs 142-33. The held one of the area’s best offenses to just 20 points. They’re a complete, well-rounded unit under first-year head coach John Holt. The Leopards are an absolute wagon. And, in my eyes, they could be headed to regionals after the final whistle blows Friday night. That’s not me just saying that, either. Many people didn’t think they could beat North Duplin, but I did. Trust the process here and see what I have to say.

Wilson Prep got a first round bye this year after being 9-1 in the regular season and winning the Tar Roanoke 1A conference. Their only loss came early in the season to 2A Farmville Central. Their two games in the playoffs have seen a 36-8 win over KIPP Pride and a 56-22 routing of North Moore last week.

The Tigers have 6,206 total yards through their 12 games, meaning they average over 500 yards per game. A lot of those yards come from their quarterback, and he’s effective in both facets of the game. It’s about a 60/40 split in terms of rushing yards to passing, though, so it sounds as if they run quite a bit of RPOs or similar plays. He only averages 81 yards rushing per game with 14 touchdowns, and has an average of 10.8 yards per carry. I can’t find any game film on them, but I’m going to guess it’s either the RPOs or a lot of scrambles that lead to these rushes.

We’ve seen Lakewood take down a pass-first offense in Hobbton. That game got close down to the wire, but they still stopped the state’s best receiver in Reggie Thompson from obliterating their defense. Cameron Williams and Devin Jones along with Landon Neal and Xavier Howard can create quarterback pressures and be sure he doesn’t escape the pocket, and their defensive backfield led by Nakai Owens and Dashaun Carr can put the clamps on receivers to stop them from creating separation.

Offensively, they just need to continue to do what they’ve done. Backfield by committee with a respectable passing game has been key to them winning, especially in the playoffs. The Tigers have sizeable defensive end/linebacker — assuming like an edge rusher — that has 112 tackles to his name this year. Put him on an island on an RPO and make sure he never makes a play, and you’ll win the game. Keep the runs through the middle and make it so he doesn’t have a chance at a stop early; make him chase down the plays if he wants to make the tackle. He has a whopping 21 sacks, so speed and size are in his favor. I think Lakewood has one of the best offensive lines in the area, so while they might struggle, I don’ think they’ll be terribly outmatched here.

With all of that being said, I’ll take the Leopards to move on to the regionals round of the playoffs to continue their Cinderella story. I don’t think the clock’s striking midnight quite yet. Give me Lakewood by a score of 31-21.